Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Aglie > Oropa – 164 km

There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.

Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.

With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!

We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.

And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Domenico Pozzovivo | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Rigoberto Uran

The Stage 15 preview will be up a few hours after the conclusion of Stage 14. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash