Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Sarnonico > Vittorio Veneto – 208 km

The riders who managed to survive the brutal sixteenth stage that put Nairo Quintana into the pink jersey will have an easier day on Stage 17, but this one is tougher than it looks. 208 total kilometers with an undulating profile, the journey from Sarnonico to Vittorio Veneto could end in a sprint finale, but both early breakers and late attackers will also like their odds.

There are three categorized climbs (all Category 4) and a number of uncategorized bumps on the day. None of them are particularly long, but the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio, the third Cat 4, is quite a steep affair. Though short at 1.2 kilometers, it averages 12.2%. It is crested with 20 kilometers left on the stage. The climb is followed by a similarly steep descent. The finish is yet another tricky affair, with back-to-back sharp left-handers between the 750-m-to-go mark and the 450-m-to-go mark, before a straightaway opens up to the line.

With a rolling profile and a vicious late ascent, the sprinters’ teams will have their work cut out for them in trying to control the race. Constant ups and downs will benefit early escapees. Even if the day’s main break is caught, the final bump in the road could see attacks from the punchier riders in the peloton. However, after the debacle on Stage 13 (in which a total lack of organization among the sprinter squads allowed a breakaway to take the victory), the likes of Giant-Shimano, Cannondale, Trek, and FDJ should be motivated to drill a high pace and shut down the hopes of anyone hoping to win off the front. As with most rolling, breakaway-friendly stages, this one is extremely tough to call.

Even if the peloton does manage to reel in any attackers, it’s not a guarantee that all the familiar names will have survived the day’s challenges. Nacer Bouhanni is the big favorite for sprint finishes in this Giro, especially on another technical final few hundred meters, but he may not hung on through the difficult journey with the pack. Giacomo Nizzolo may have slightly better odds, as he has shown an ability to hang on through some tough days in his young career, but he’s still a question mark. The same is true for Luka Mezgec, who can at least rely on one of the most dedicated support squads to help him reach the finish in a good position. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, as usual, is also a strong candidate for a sprint, if he survives. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari are other outsiders among the pure sprinters. Sky’s Ben Swift, now that his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen and Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews are both out of the race, becomes a big favorite in the event of a reduced sprint. He’s climbing beautifully at the moment (he beat Franco Pellizotti to the top of the Val Martello climb by over two minutes) but he’s also quite fast. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas, and Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke also become much more attractive options if the bunch has been whittled down by the day’s climbing. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see Wilco Kelderman or Cadel Evans try to get involved if the group is small enough.

Riders like Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Oscar Gatto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and even Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno could try to enliven Stage 17 on the final climb.

It will be a vicious battle to get into the morning breakaway. Some of the tougher names listed above could try their luck; other riders who could be hoping to hang out front for a long one include Katusha’s Luca Paolini, Trek’s Fabio Felline, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Barbin and Edoardo Zardini (their squad really does have a wealth of options for the variety of potential scenarios on Stage 17), and Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hanson. It’s always a crapshoot predicting who will make it into the big move, but whoever does get into the morning break will be in a great position for the stage win, especially if the sprint trains fail to organize properly.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Ben Swift

The GC action will heat up again on Stage 18; keep an eye out for the preview a few hours after Stage 17. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash