Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash