Tour de France 2015 Preview

The 2015 Tour de France is about to get underway, with the peloton set for a Dutch Grand Départ in the Netherlands this weekend. A quick time trial and then a few days of Classics-style racing will give way to several days for the sprinters and more versatile stagehunters before a team time trial and then some very challenging mountain stages to really spark competition among the overall favorites. With a route built to encourage uphill battles and multiple riders looking to have legitimate chances of coming away with the overall win, this year’s edition of the sport’s biggest event is set to be an excellent showdown, and with all the action just around the corner, it’s time for VeloHuman’s overall Tour de France preview.

The Route

The Tour kicks off with a short, flat ITT in the Netherlands (in the university town of Utrecht, to be exact). Then comes another day on Dutch soil, a flat road stage, followed by a trip to Belgium’s challenging Mur de Huy on Stage 3. Stage 4 will stick with the Classics theme, challenging the peloton with several stretches of cobbles in between start and finish.

Things get a bit more traditional after that. Stages 5 through 8 look friendly for the fast finishers or those riders fortunate and skilled enough to stick long breakaways. Stage 9 is a medium-length team time trial that will open up a few time gaps on the General Classification, and it’s followed by three high mountain stages certain to see plenty more GC action.

The bumpy profiles of Stages 13 through 16 will keep the GC riders on their toes and, at least in terms of stage honors, will likely favor the more well-rounded fast finishers and aggressive types. Then come the serious mountain tests likely to decide the Tour de France: a very difficult Stage 17, a tough Stage 18, and an extremely challenging one-two punch of mountaintop finishes on Stages 19 and 20.

The Alpe d’Huez finale of Stage 20 will make for a great final GC battleground in the 2015 Tour de France, especially at the end of a day packed with climbing. The race will conclude in its usual style with a sprinter-friendly Stage 21 in Paris.

All told, it’s a climber-friendly route, with far fewer total kilometers of individual time trialing than recent years have seen. Versatility will still be important, however, as cobblestones, Low Country weather, plenty of short steep climbs, and technical descents will challenge the yellow jersey hopefuls to survive and thrive on more than just the long Alpine uphill slogs.

The General Classification Contenders

This year’s GC battle is all about cycling’s “Big Four” GC riders: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Nairo Quintana. Only Quintana is without at least one Tour de France victory on his record, but his runner-up performance in 2013 and his Giro win in 2014 shine brightly all the same. With all four seemingly on form and healthy, it should be quite a showdown. Each rider has factors weighing for and against favorite status.

At least in VeloHuman’s perspective, Chris Froome, recently victorious in the Critérium du Dauphiné, looks to be the slight favorite. The last time he stayed healthy throughout the Tour de France, he dominated the field. His 2015 campaign has not been as steady as that incredible 2013, but he looked very strong last month in the Dauphiné, and he has an unbelievable supporting cast with the likes of Richie Porte, Leopold König, Wout Poels, and Nicolas Roche, among others. Sky can put the pressure on early with so many weapons, and Froome’s machine-like endurance should keep his legs powering along late in the race. For Froome, a parcours light on time trials might seem like a less ideal scenario, but the 30-year-old stage racer has actually been underwhelming against the clock lately, meanwhile putting in some very strong climbing rides so far this year. To win, however, he’ll need to overcome the fierce competition of his rivals, whom he has not been able to put away as easily in recent months as he did back when he last won the Tour.

Alberto Contador certainly has the talent at peak ability to take on Froome in this race, as his terrific 2014 Vuelta victory suggested. But his Giro participation, excellent though his winning performance was, will almost certainly have taken something out of him. The Giro-Tour double is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Contador may have a better chance of pulling it off than anyone in the sport, but that still might not be enough. A TT-light route won’t help him—he’s certainly better against the clock than Quintana and Nibali, but that won’t be of use here. Instead, he’ll need to rely on his ability to get up the vicious climbs in the final week to win this race, and that might be a lot to ask after a prior GT win already on the season. In any case, strong supporters like Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger will be valuable to Contador’s attempt to beat the odds and the other favorites.

Nairo Quintana should be coming in fresh, and this is the perfect route for him. He’s not a great time trialist, but that won’t hold him back with less than 15km against the clock solo—what’s more, Movistar typically fields a strong TTT squad, making the TTT a place where the young Colombian might actually be able to pick up time on his rivals. After that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put his terrific climbing skills on display. The last time Quintana and Froome went up against each other in a full Grand Tour, Froome emerged victorious, but Quintana has gotten older and stronger since then, and should be a very strong contender for the overall. Alejandro Valverde offers Movistar a powerful card to play as well—and don’t be surprised if he has his own GC ambitions in this race too.

Despite winning last year’s Tour de France, Vincenzo Nibali will face an uphill battle for a repeat victory. His Tour win was impressive, for sure, but with neither Froome nor Contador surviving into the final week (and Quintana opting to race elsewhere that year), it’s hard to judge Nibali against the gold standard of his top rivals. He was far stronger than everyone else still in the race by the final mountain stages of the 2014 Tour, but that wasn’t really all that unexpected. Still, this is a good route for him, and he has a very complete team around him (which includes stalwart lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang) to help him pursue his second Tour win.

Outside of that quartet of top favorites, it’s hard to see anyone else really challenging for the overall win, but there are a few strong outsiders. Fresh off his Dauphiné win, Tejay van Garderen looks better than ever on the climbs, and he’ll have BMC’s worlds-winning TTT squad to put him into a good position early on in the race. Thibaut Pinot won high mountain stages in both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse, and the lack of ITT mileage favors his skillset. Rui Costa has had a strong year, and has been an elite one-week racer for some time, despite never really putting it together across three weeks to land a big Grand Tour result—this could be his year to finally string together several good days. Joaquim Rodríguez has run a bit hot and cold in 2015, but he was untouchable in País Vasco; this parcours suits his abilities quite well and that could help him battle it out for a big result. Bauke Mollema should also like the overall route (and the Dutch start), and he has shown flashes of impressive form this year.

AG2R’s one-two punch of Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet, and Cannondale-Garmin’s one-two-three punch of Andrew Talansky, Ryder Hesjedal, and Dan Martin could make things interesting. The EQS duo of Michal Kwiatkowski and Rigoberto Urán, IAM’s Mathias Frank, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil are among those who will hope to battle for big results from the fringes of the GC conversation.

The Stagehunters

With Marcel Kittel out of the Tour de France this year, Mark Cavendish looks to be the class of the field in the pure speed department in this race, but there are plenty of strong riders behind him who will hope to nab stage wins as well, especially on some of the bumpier stages where Cav might struggle. André Greipel, at his best, should be able to mix it up with Cavendish on the pure flats. The likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and, of course, Peter Sagan, will also try to be in the conversation, with the tougher days potentially providing opportunities for some of them to battle it out without Cavendish in the conversation. John Degenkolb, in particular, could surprise—as versatile as he is, he’s also just plain fast in a sprint. With Giant-Alpecin’s full support thanks to the absence of Marcel Kittel, Degenkolb could rack up the results and maybe even a strong green jersey bid. Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, and MTN-Qhubeka’s speedy pair of Tyler Farrar and an in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch in the sprints.

A generous helping of intermediate stages will likely see the peloton’s punchy climbers and long-range specialists hunting for multiple stage victories. Watch out for the likes of OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, and Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin (among many others) to keep things interesting on the bumpier days. Lastly, a note about the very strong field of TT specialists in attendance: there may be only one (short) ITT in the Tour, but a chance to wear yellow is on the line and the impressive time trialing quartet of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Dumoulin, and Adriano Malori should be in the mix with a few of the aforementioned GC contenders for the honor of a stint in the yellow jersey early on in the year.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Alejandro Valverde

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the first stage of the race—VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the 2015 Tour. The preview of Stage 1 is already online! Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride’s three Tour de France podcasts. The first episode is available here!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Epping Forest District Council (CC).